Da Scent

This is my first real attempt at an on-line journal. It'll be parts political, parts personal, parts other. I'll try to keep it interesting, whatever I write. Feedback is appreciated...

UPDATE: Ok, I've taken a step to avoid spammers. So anyone can post comments again, you'll just have to do a word verification first. No big deal, just a minor pain in the ass, courtesy of the fucktards.

Location: Pasadena, Maryland

Aspiring novelist (hey, write, call or e-mail if you can hook me up with a literary agent...no hurries though, I've only just started).

Sunday, March 05, 2006

Oscar preview

Well, I finally saw my first Best Picture nominee of the year last night, and Brokeback Mountain was as good as advertised. Ledger and Gyllenhaal gave inspired performances, the scenery was beautiful and breathtaking, and the story was heartbreaking. I expect it to be taking home several statues tonight.

Here's my run down of the "mjaor" categories...

Supporting Actor
George Clooney - 40%
Paul Giamatti - 35%
Jake Gyllenhaal - 20%
Matt Dillon - 4%
William Hurt - 1%

This appears to be a two-horse race with a potential sleeper. Clooney has the advantage of being the major star, as opposed to Giamatti and Gyllenhaal, who are "actor's actors". But Oscar voters might be feeling a tad embarassed about snubbing Giamatti last year after his fabulous performance in Sideways and they might use this as a make-up Oscar. but then again, maybe they think that just giving him the nomination is making up enough...

Supporting Actress
Rachael Weisz - 75%
Michelle Williams - 15%
Catherine Keener - 5%
Frances McDormand - 4%
Amy Adams - 1%

Very close to a lock. Michelle Williams was wonderful in Brokeback Mountain, but she stands little chance of taking the award from Weisz, who cleaned up the other awards.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman - 50%
Heath Ledger - 30%
Joaquin Phoenix - 18%
Terrance Howard - 1%
David Strathairn - 1%

Hoffman won the SAG and the Golden Globe, which together indicates a high probability of success, but Ledger's performance was outstanding, and he has a very good chance if the Academy decides it's tired of handing out Acting Oscars for biopics. Phoenix has an outside shot.

Reese Witherspoon - 60%
Felicity Huffman - 35%
Charlize Theron - 2%
Keira Knightley - 2%
Judi Dench - 1%

It's either Witherspoon or Huffman, that much is certain, and the buzz is Witherspoon will come out on top. We'll see if that holds true - the indicator awards were sort of mixed (both won Golden Globes and while Witherspoon won the SAG, Huffman won the SAG for television for her role in Desperate Housewives and the SAG might have been trying to split those awards).

Screenplay, Adapted
Munich - 40%
Brokeback Mountain - 30%
Capote - 15%
The Constant Gardener - 10%
A History of Violence - 5%

It'll be Brokeback or Munich, and I'm going with Munich because I don't seeing it winning any other biggies and I also don't see it going home empty-handed.

Screenplay, Original
Crash - 40%
Good Night, And Good Luck - 35%
Syriana - 23%
Match Point - 1%
The Squid And the Whale - 1%

Crash got a massive screening right around the time of the SAG Awards and it reaped the benefit of the Award for ensemble acting. Here's saying it wins an Oscar, too - this one.

Brokeback Mountain - 65%
Munich - 25%
Good Night, And Good Luck 8%
Capote - 1%
Crash - 1%

Ang Lee was upset by Stephen Soderbergh in 2000 when he did Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (although I was pretty sure that Soderbergh, who was nominated twice in that category that year, for Erin Brokovich and for Traffic, was going to win for one of those, and he did for Traffic), and this is his make-up Oscar. But you can never count Spielberg out of any Oscar race he is in, and Clooney has some support as well.

Brokeback Mountain - 85%
Crash - 10%
Munich - 2%
Capote - 2%
Good Night, And Good Luck - 1%

There is a lot of talk that the Brokeback Mountain will experience a backlash and that Crash has a lot of momentum, but I'm not buying it. A lot of Crash's supposed "momentum" talk is based on the movie's SAG win for Ensemble Performace, which is erroneously thought of as SAG's "equivalent" for Best Picture. Well, it's not Best Picture. It's ensemble acting. And Crash was a true ensemble movie, as opposed to Brokeback, which was largely carried by Ledger and Gyllenhaal, with some good supporting performances. Sideways won the ensemble award last year, and fat load of good that did that movie come Best Picture time Oscar Night (although Sideways did win Best Screenplay, which is what I'm calling for Crash to win). As far as Hollywood is concerned, this is the year of the Mountain.